Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1884…8f62
crypto · 1299 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$80 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$82 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1020 / 278
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1298 / 1299
History coverage39d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1298 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$45
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 81¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$15 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 +3.2% -6.7% 79% 43% -9.5%
≤30d 961 +2.5% -7.2% 78% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 1298 +3.7% -6.1% 79% 47% -8.8%
all 1298 +3.7% -6.1% 79% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 47% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 23% -17.5%
15% -23.3% 10% -25.5%
20% -30.8% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.61 · official $1.76 (match) · 3500 history records