Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1882…7afe other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4
world 16% −$5
crypto 11% +$3
sports 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.5% -48.0% 0% 0% -54.1%
≤30d 4 -42.5% -48.0% 0% 0% -54.1%
≤90d 4 -42.5% -48.0% 0% 0% -54.1%
all 4 -42.5% -48.0% 0% 0% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.0% 0% -54.1%
10% -53.0% 0% -58.5%
15% -57.5% 0% -62.5%
20% -61.7% 0% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage12d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+29%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.08 · official $85.08 (match) · 28 history records