Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1882…fdb3 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$47 (+1%) realized +$160 · open −$113
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$8
crypto 21% +$24
world 19% +$14
politics 15% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 11 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 17 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 0% -7.5%
all 17 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 0% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 0% -7.5%
10% -16.0% 0% -16.4%
15% -24.1% 0% -24.5%
20% -31.5% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×22.86 per $1 lost it wins $22.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$3,098
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)17 / 32
History coverage52d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $533 $526 −$7 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $391 $396 +$5 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $343 $343 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $342 $339 −$2 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $195 $311 +$116 (+60%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $245 $247 +$2 (+1%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 96¢ 96¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $195 $79 −$116 (-60%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $166 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $162 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $63 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 29 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 27 $95 +$4 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 22 $94 +$5 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 22 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 21 $97 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $284 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $94 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $69 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $28 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $191 5d
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $169 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $196 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $147 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $147 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $147 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $147 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $147 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $146 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 15d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $100 16d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY No 97¢ $101 20d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $100 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $166 22d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $138 22d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $5 22d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $8 22d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,097.73 · official $3,097.73 (match) · 132 history records