Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x187d…9b50 sports 53 markets active 4d ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$444 (-11%) realized −$444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,472
14 days−$1,472
30 days−$1,372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$696
other 5% +$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -42.2% -47.7% 32% 32% -54.7%
≤30d 42 -39.7% -45.5% 33% 33% -49.4%
≤90d 43 -35.0% -41.2% 35% 35% -43.6%
all 53 -3.9% -13.0% 45% 45% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 45% -20.0%
10% -21.4% 45% -27.6%
15% -28.9% 43% -34.6%
20% -35.9% 32% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$73 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage552d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $225 −$222 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $116 −$115 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $92 +$62 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $124 +$166 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $98 +$41 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $67 +$23 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $67 +$28 +41%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $67 −$66 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 +$46 +128%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $67 −$66 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$51 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $67 +$35 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Jun 11 $138 −$138 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jun 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Jun 11 $161 −$161 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $66 +$38 +57%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $34 +$35 +105%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $54 +$40 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 +$30 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 22 $162 +$101 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 27 $100 +$163 +163%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 06 $57 +$26 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $120 +$133 +111%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $50 +$158 +316%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 07 $40 +$55 +138%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 07 $100 +$41 +41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 06 $70 +$60 +85%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1) Dec 04 $100 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $98 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 52¢ $116 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 32¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $127 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $154 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 59¢ $92 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $291 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $139 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $124 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $98 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $76 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $57 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $89 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $67 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $94 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $67 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $53 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $81 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $67 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $67 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $36 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records