Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x187c…8708 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$368 (+10%) realized +$447 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days+$1,193
14 days+$1,193
30 days+$1,193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$764
sports 31% +$1,656
world 12% −$323
politics 10% −$212
crypto 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -41.8% -47.4% 18% 18% +61.4%
≤30d 17 -41.8% -47.4% 18% 18% +61.4%
≤90d 17 -41.8% -47.4% 18% 18% +61.4%
all 36 -37.3% -43.3% 19% 19% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 19% +3.8%
10% -48.7% 19% -6.1%
15% -53.7% 14% -15.2%
20% -58.2% 14% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$63 · ×5.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$728
Realized+$447
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage161d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $699 $633 −$66 (-9%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 21¢ $108 $95 −$13 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $214 −$208 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$11 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $214 −$209 -98%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $455 −$446 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $530 +$2,148 +406%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
GPT ads by March 31? Feb 09 $349 −$211 -60%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 31 $100 −$94 -94%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jan 29 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during NewsNation interview? Jan 21 $80 −$66 -83%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $25 +$55 +220%
Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 21 $100 −$25 -25%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 21 $31 −$5 -18%
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21 Jan 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 20 $17 −$10 -58%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? Jan 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 20 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 20 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 20 $23 +$12 +51%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 19 $36 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Jan 19 $50 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $111 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $110 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $12 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $104 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 4d
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $200 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $171 4d
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $255 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $257 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,678 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $111 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $93 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $50 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $132 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $11 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $23 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $110 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $728.26 · official $728.26 (match) · 96 history records