Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
18 0x1879…e314 sports 8 markets active 10h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$122 (+44%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +175% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +139% what you keep after slip
Net edge+139%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$91
sports 36% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+148.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +174.7% +148.5% 50% 50% +29.2%
≤30d 8 +174.7% +148.5% 50% 50% +29.2%
≤90d 8 +174.7% +148.5% 50% 50% +29.2%
all 8 +174.7% +148.5% 50% 50% +29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +148.5% 50% +29.2%
10% +124.8% 50% +16.9%
15% +103.0% 50% +5.6%
20% +83.1% 50% -4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +175% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$34 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 +$58 +133%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$18 -45%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$146 +1420%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $22 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 22h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 31h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $88 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records