Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1877…74c4 world 34 markets active 2d ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$4
other 10% +$1
politics 6% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 5% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 0% -10.5%
all 34 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage450d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 −$2 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 26 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on April 6? Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US sanction UK before April? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 24 $1 $0 -12%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $11 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $28 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $12 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $29 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $7 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $26 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $33 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $33 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $35 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records