Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1877…78d7 sports 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$10 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%115W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$59
14 days−$126
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$91
world 30% −$34
other 19% −$24
politics 12% +$207
economics 3% −$18
tech 3% −$48
culture 1% +$9
weather 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 33% -16.6%
≤30d 28 -8.1% -16.9% 54% 32% -16.5%
≤90d 62 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 27% -10.3%
all 273 -1.7% -11.0% 42% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 32% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 27% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 23% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$18 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses115 / 158
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)273 / 280
History coverage123d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 85¢ 99¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 84¢ 91¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $14 $42 +$28 (+202%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-70%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 92¢ 24¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $51 −$2 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +41%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 20? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $50 −$27 -53%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $50 −$31 -62%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $50 −$3 -7%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $51 +$5 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $50 +$29 +59%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $50 +$7 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$13 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $50 −$47 -93%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $50 −$28 -56%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $51 +$70 +137%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $50 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $50 −$8 -17%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $51 −$26 -52%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $33 −$2 -6%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 15 $51 −$33 -66%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 14 $50 +$69 +138%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $51 +$14 +28%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 07 $50 +$3 +6%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 06 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May? May 05 $50 −$14 -28%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $50 −$36 -72%
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 29 $50 −$19 -37%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 27 $50 −$22 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $50 −$6 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $50 −$19 -38%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 18 $50 −$4 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $150 −$8 -6%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $100 +$51 +51%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $49 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $51 1h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $4 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $0 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 6h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 7h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $18 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 8h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $50 9h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 14h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 14h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 17h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 20h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 26h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 33h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 35h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 9¢ $10 36h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 9¢ $0 36h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 9¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.11 · official $250.11 (match) · 992 history records