Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x186d…8bfe crypto 948 markets active 10h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate86%818W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 160 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 940 -4.0% -13.1% 86% 10% -11.0%
all 948 -4.0% -13.1% 86% 10% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 10% -11.0%
10% -21.4% 7% -19.6%
15% -29.0% 5% -27.3%
20% -36.0% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses818 / 130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)948 / 948
History coverage104d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 948 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2003 history records