Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
18 0x186d…71f7 finance 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+2%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,259per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 91% +$94
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤30d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤90d 2 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 50% -8.1%
all 2 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 50% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -16.9%
15% -19.1% 0% -25.0%
20% -27.1% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$0 · ×964.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×964.08 per $1 lost it wins $964.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage71d
Avg bet$2,259
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $627 $626 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 17 $501 +$94 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 29 $5,648 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $629 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $596 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $501 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $495 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 97¢ $5,153 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $5,648 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.45 · official $626.46 (match) · 14 history records