Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x186c…f982 crypto 1136 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$95 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate91%1034W / 101L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$2,924
14 days−$850
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$18
weather 21% −$731
other 21% +$649
sports 1% +$202
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -28.0% -34.8% 47% 29% -57.0%
≤30d 71 -6.1% -15.1% 61% 38% -10.4%
≤90d 108 +2.9% -6.9% 56% 33% -10.0%
all 1135 +1.1% -8.5% 91% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 8% -9.8%
10% -17.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$52 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1034 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1135 / 1136
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $114 $120 +$6 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June 20? No 91¢ 98¢ $95 $102 +$7 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? No 80¢ 81¢ $78 $80 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? No 78¢ 72¢ $47 $43 −$4 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? No 80¢ 80¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $96 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $87 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $79 +$20 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $68 +$22 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $73 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $139 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$11 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $151 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 −$51 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $181 +$24 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $139 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$52 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $110 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $445 +$107 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 −$71 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $85 +$26 +31%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$31 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,290 −$1,239 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,239 −$1,234 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,557 +$69 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,432 +$985 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $175 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $26 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $696 +$304 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $167 +$233 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $479 +$39 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $643 −$344 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $333 −$202 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $216 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $352 −$38 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $164 +$202 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,139 +$181 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $4 27m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $8 27m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $16 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $6 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $4 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $16 46m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $113 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $99 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 74¢ $18 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 74¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $79 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $20 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $14 18h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $14 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.13 · official $366.94 (match) · 3500 history records