Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x186a…559d
sports · 653 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$88 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,118
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses359 / 191
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions103
Markets (closed)550 / 653
History coverage50d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 103 History 550 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$727
7 days+$51
14 days+$40
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 70¢ 100¢ $191 $273 +$82 (+43%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 54¢ 99¢ $100 $184 +$84 (+84%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Under 52¢ 94¢ $100 $181 +$81 (+81%)
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Darja Semenistaja Darja Semenistaja 51¢ 50¢ $180 $176 −$4 (-2%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 54¢ 94¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Learner Tien 85¢ 80¢ $180 $168 −$12 (-6%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 84¢ $100 $163 +$63 (+63%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Under 51¢ 83¢ $100 $163 +$63 (+63%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 57¢ 90¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 63¢ 100¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Atlanta Dream 52¢ 66¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Atlanta Dream 71¢ 86¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 84¢ 91¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 78¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs TDK 74¢ 78¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) New York Liberty 50¢ 52¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) New York Liberty 52¢ 55¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 Over 54¢ 56¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs LYON 54¢ 56¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 57¢ 58¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 68¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Arthur Fery 56¢ 56¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$75 +74%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $70 +$30 +44%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 14 $183 −$4 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
ITF Zagreb: Elina Avanesyan vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Collignon vs. Agut: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $25 +$22 +90%
Raphael Collignon vs. Roberto Bautista Agut: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $181 −$70 -39%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marie Mettraux Jun 14 $101 +$38 +38%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $101 +$93 +92%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $182 +$151 +83%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$11 +36%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $302 +$64 +21%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $26 −$25 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $183 +$164 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$38 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $101 +$87 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez BUY Ayla Aksu 73¢ $101 20m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $101 36m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Vici Gaming 87¢ $20 55m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 1h
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 66¢ $101 1h
Frech vs. Zhang: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 74¢ $13 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $30 1h
Hayu Kinoshita vs. Viktoria Hruncakova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 66¢ $12 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 56¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 64¢ $101 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 67¢ $101 1h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 51¢ $183 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 68¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 69¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 74¢ $101 2h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 61¢ $101 2h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 76¢ $101 2h
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson BUY Kaylan Bigun 56¢ $101 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $101 3h
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma BUY Madison Brengle 66¢ $101 3h
Lois Boisson vs. Dayana Yastremska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $4 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 63¢ $101 3h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 60¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY 100 Thieves 86¢ $9 3h
Marie Bouzkova vs. Tereza Valentova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $101 4h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 63¢ $13 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 4h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 60¢ $101 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 -0.9% -10.3% 63% 60% -9.1%
≤30d 544 +1.3% -8.3% 66% 61% -9.1%
≤90d 550 +0.2% -9.3% 65% 61% -9.2%
all 550 +0.2% -9.3% 65% 61% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 61% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 53% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 43% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 30% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,117.96 · official $8,118.02 (match) · 1028 history records