Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1867…bb84
other · 58 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,727 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,740 · open −$268
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$319
Realized−$3,740
Unrealized−$268
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions8
Markets (closed)50 / 58
History coverage129d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%
Chart Positions 8 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$67
14 days−$416
30 days−$3,882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $167 $149 −$18 (-11%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $57 $60 +$4 (+6%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $57 $51 −$6 (-11%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $235 $13 −$222 (-94%)
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-84%)
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $568 $0 −$568 (-100%)
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1,374 $0 −$1,374 (-100%)
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $782 $0 −$782 (-100%)
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $354 $0 −$354 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $760 −$40 -5%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $62 −$12 -19%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $109 −$13 -12%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $623 −$24 -4%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 05 $157 −$33 -21%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1,246 −$123 -10%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $349 −$41 -12%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $147 −$128 -87%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $313 −$167 -53%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $88 −$17 -20%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $168 −$8 -5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $226 −$103 -46%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $40 −$11 -26%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $116 −$50 -43%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $58 +$9 +16%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $707 −$103 -15%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $99 −$7 -7%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $12 −$11 -97%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,924 −$1,672 -87%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $295 −$90 -31%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $575 −$359 -63%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,489 −$357 -24%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,088 −$717 -66%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $150 +$14 +9%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $513 +$198 +39%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Armenia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $56 −$33 -58%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $69 −$64 -93%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $43 −$39 -91%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $136 −$12 -9%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 14 $24 −$4 -17%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $73 +$34 +47%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $102 −$17 -17%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $34 −$33 -95%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 09 $30 −$7 -22%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 07 $355 −$12 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,247 +$62 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $37 −$14 -38%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Mar 05 $65 −$41 -64%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Feb 18 $147 +$3 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 18 $145 −$52 -36%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Feb 16 $1,877 +$329 +18%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 12 $3,413 +$54 +2%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $1,032 +$10 +1%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $1,483 +$15 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$3,655
world 15% −$10
politics 14% −$298
economics 6% −$4
sports 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $85 35m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $53 36m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 36m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 40m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 41m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 46m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $33 46m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 47m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 47m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $71 48m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 51m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 52m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 54m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 57m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $32 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.2% -18.8% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 29 -44.0% -49.4% 14% 7% -47.8%
≤90d 43 -43.8% -49.1% 14% 7% -41.2%
all 50 -39.2% -45.0% 22% 8% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 8% -25.9%
10% -50.2% 4% -33.0%
15% -55.1% 4% -39.4%
20% -59.5% 0% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.40 · official $319.40 (match) · 1644 history records