Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1867…1130 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$11
politics 26% −$7
sports 15% +$32
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 109 +2.9% -6.9% 8% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×15.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage133d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $375 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $346 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $386 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $372 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $164 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 06 $353 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $219 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $387 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $165 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $352 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $225 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $183 26d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $183 29d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 31d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $155 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $155 33d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $213 33d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $213 35d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 35d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 36d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $193 62d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $193 63d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $182 63d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $182 63d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 63d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $181 63d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $205 63d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 63d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $182 64d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $182 64d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 64d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 64d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $205 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 317 history records