Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1866…1325
sports · 259 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$2,208 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,988 · open −$220
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$196
Realized−$1,988
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses116 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions2
Markets (closed)257 / 259
History coverage191d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 257 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$695
14 days+$244
30 days−$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 75¢ 74¢ $197 $195 −$3 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 75¢ 0¢ $219 $1 −$218 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 55¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner NAVI Junior 60¢ 0¢ $216 $0 −$216 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $245 $0 −$245 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner JiJieHao 73¢ 0¢ $499 $0 −$499 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner paiN Gaming 41¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) PARIVISION 6¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1) Liquid 24¢ 0¢ $139 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $350 +$70 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $135 +$164 +121%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$22 +22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $108 +$55 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $79 +$61 +78%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Monte (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$29 -28%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $51 +$86 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$45 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$11 -32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $54 +$55 +103%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$46 +178%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 −$52 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $125 −$71 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $115 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$37 -71%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $67 −$35 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $112 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $89 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $86 +$19 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $72 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $57 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $58 +$12 +21%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $25 +$46 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $38 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$29 +58%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $298 +$218 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $124 +$173 +139%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $324 +$266 +82%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $251 +$171 +68%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $205 +$47 +23%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $124 +$81 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $47 +$77 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $12 +$36 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $78 −$75 -95%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $118 −$117 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $129 +$78 +60%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$917
crypto 34% −$1,357
other 0% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $199 35m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $221 46m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $419 49m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $350 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $299 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $122 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 81¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $64 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $164 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 65¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $140 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 55¢ $79 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Monte (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) BUY Monte 27¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 35¢ $73 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $102 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 5¢ $15 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) SELL FURIA 99¢ $137 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY FURIA 36¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $46 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 20¢ $24 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $5 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $5 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $26 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $109 6h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY FURIA 49¢ $71 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 63¢ $71 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $54 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -3.7% -12.9% 51% 49% +3.5%
≤30d 198 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 43% -11.8%
≤90d 211 -13.0% -21.2% 45% 44% -10.8%
all 257 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 44% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 44% -14.6%
10% -28.7% 40% -22.8%
15% -35.6% 37% -30.2%
20% -41.9% 32% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.09 · official $196.09 (match) · 579 history records