Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

18 0x1864…6914 crypto 25 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$144 (-4%) realized −$138 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%13W / 11L

Drawdown85%max

Avg bet$138per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$588

7 days−$484

14 days+$103

30 days+$103

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-6.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-19.9%	-27.5%	38%	38%	-36.9%
≤30d	24	+3.1%	-6.7%	54%	54%	-6.6%
≤90d	24	+3.1%	-6.7%	54%	54%	-6.6%
all	24	+3.1%	-6.7%	54%	54%	-6.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.7%	54%	-6.6%
10%	-15.7%	54%	-15.5%
15%	-23.8%	50%	-23.7%
20%	-31.3%	33%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +31% → late -25% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$79 vs −$84 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$310

Realized−$138

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses13 / 11

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage10d

Avg bet$138

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown85%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	19¢	$315	$310	−$6 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$60	−$60	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 25	$77	−$77	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 25	$21	−$21	-100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$402	−$402	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 25	$31	+$28	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$10	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$24	+93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 25	$16	−$16	-100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$502	−$70	-14%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$119	+$205	+172%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$192	−$149	-78%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	Jun 19	$125	+$49	+39%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5	Jun 18	$25	+$25	+100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$101	+$40	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 17	$62	+$44	+71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 17	$21	+$48	+228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 17	$76	−$76	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$461	+$272	+59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$203	+$97	+48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$389	+$91	+24%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari	Jun 15	$148	+$92	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$28	4h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	83¢	$201	4h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	78¢	$60	4h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	24¢	$65	5h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	77¢	$212	5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$323	3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	16¢	$42	6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	99¢	$174	6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	71¢	$125	6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$192	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$21	7d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	85¢	$402	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$62	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$21	7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$16	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$21	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$77	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$76	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$60	7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	7d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5	BUY Over	49¢	$25	7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	62¢	$461	8d
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	36¢	$119	9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	67¢	$203	9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	81¢	$389	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.85 · official $309.85 (match) · 64 history records