Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1864…5052 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%69W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$7
other 2% $0
tech 0% −$2
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 23 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 72 -3.7% -12.9% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses69 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage232d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? Jun 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? May 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? May 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? Apr 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 23? Mar 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 8? Mar 12 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 14? Feb 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on January Jan 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 17? Jan 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 6? Jan 07 $97 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $96 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $96 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $95 7d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 98¢ $7 24d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 24d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $99 35d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 93¢ $2 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 53d
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 55d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $101 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $101 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $102 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $100 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $97 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $99 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $95 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $99 84d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $99 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $102 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $99 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $98 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $102 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.11 · official $103.11 (match) · 148 history records