Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1863…f356 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+9%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%30W / 18L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +7.8% -2.4% 62% 52% +2.4%
≤30d 48 +7.8% -2.4% 62% 52% +2.4%
≤90d 48 +7.8% -2.4% 62% 52% +2.4%
all 48 +7.8% -2.4% 62% 52% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 52% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 44% -7.4%
15% -20.3% 38% -16.4%
20% -28.1% 29% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses30 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 19¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$30 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$28 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$50 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $22 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.68 · official $19.44 · 175 history records