Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1863…6174 sports 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,386 (+9%) realized +$1,252 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%159W / 105L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$29
14 days+$139
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,387
other 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.1% -35.8% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤30d 77 +0.6% -8.9% 57% 52% -4.4%
≤90d 252 +7.5% -2.7% 61% 56% +0.1%
all 264 +6.8% -3.4% 60% 56% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 56% -0.2%
10% -12.6% 53% -9.7%
15% -21.1% 47% -18.5%
20% -28.8% 39% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$38 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$1,252
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses159 / 105
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions3
Markets (closed)264 / 267
History coverage192d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 54¢ 100¢ $100 $184 +$84 (+84%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 55¢ 100¢ $55 $100 +$45 (+82%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 63¢ 70¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$36 +67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$48 +46%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $61 +$19 +32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $110 +$70 +64%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $132 −$52 -39%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $56 +$34 +61%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $57 +$43 +75%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $62 +$28 +45%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $38 +$62 +165%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $62 +$28 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $53 +$27 +52%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $52 +$28 +54%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $53 +$27 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $53 +$27 +52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $60 +$60 +101%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $90 −$50 -56%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $57 +$58 +101%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $45 −$44 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $86 −$63 -73%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $52 −$17 -32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $57 −$13 -22%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $54 +$12 +22%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $57 +$43 +75%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $24 +$76 +317%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $50 +$22 +44%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $30 −$5 -15%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 +$54 +104%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $28 +$22 +75%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $52 +$38 +72%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $106 +$54 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $106 +$54 +52%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $156 −$103 -66%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $99 −$50 -50%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $56 −$30 -53%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $106 +$84 +78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $174 +$11 +6%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $58 +$42 +71%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $137 +$76 +56%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $105 +$65 +61%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $102 −$101 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $53 +$27 +52%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $52 −$51 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 43¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 55¢ $55 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $56 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $54 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 58¢ $46 2d
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 67¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 67¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 67¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 67¢ $15 3d
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 65¢ $52 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $151 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 42¢ $17 5d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 19¢ $8 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 66¢ $53 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 57¢ $23 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 56¢ $34 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 66¢ $8 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 66¢ $45 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $25 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $55 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 65¢ $52 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $37 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.90 · official $327.90 (match) · 775 history records