Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x185c…80a4 crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$294 (-12%) realized −$294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%52W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$183
14 days−$489
30 days−$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$125
other 15% −$355
sports 9% +$49
world 3% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +55.3% +40.5% 56% 50% -29.3%
≤30d 94 +57.4% +42.4% 55% 52% -31.0%
≤90d 94 +57.4% +42.4% 55% 52% -31.0%
all 94 +57.4% +42.4% 55% 52% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.4% 52% -31.0%
10% +28.8% 44% -37.6%
15% +16.4% 35% -43.6%
20% +4.9% 22% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +88% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses52 / 42
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage18d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $42 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$6 +27%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$34 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$21 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$131 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $80 +$36 +44%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $101 −$98 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $97 −$95 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $115 −$112 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $32 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $31 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records