Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
18 0x185b…387b other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$5 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$46
14 days+$9
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$9
world 37% −$11
crypto 6% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +24.8% +12.9% 75% 75% +18.4%
≤30d 7 +3.6% -6.2% 43% 43% -9.8%
≤90d 7 +3.6% -6.2% 43% 43% -9.8%
all 7 +3.6% -6.2% 43% 43% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 43% -9.8%
10% -15.2% 43% -18.4%
15% -23.4% 14% -26.3%
20% -30.9% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage20d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 52¢ $33 $55 +$22 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-23%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $26 −$13 -50%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $49 +$14 +28%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $38 +$32 +85%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $34 +$12 +35%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $57 −$9 -16%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$27 -54%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $237 −$11 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.49 · official $154.49 (match) · 38 history records