Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x185b…8bd4 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%41W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$6
crypto 7% +$1
politics 3% $0
other 2% −$1
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 55 +0.1% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses41 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage545d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 14 $36 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Mar 21 $5,667 −$6 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next German electi Jan 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Jan 10 $33 $0 -1%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 09 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 62d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 92d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $26 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 99¢ $10 121d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 121d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 150d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 182d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 182d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 210d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 211d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $13 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 241d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 271d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $3 332d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $36 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 362d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.45 · official $52.45 (match) · 119 history records