Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1856…bea7 world 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 387d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$264 (+4%) realized −$595 · open +$859
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate67%34W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$104
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$7
other 14% +$5
sports 2% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +77.6% +60.6% 56% 56% +15.4%
≤30d 9 +77.6% +60.6% 56% 56% +15.4%
≤90d 9 +77.6% +60.6% 56% 56% +15.4%
all 51 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 25% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 25% -21.5%
10% -11.9% 16% -29.0%
15% -20.4% 12% -35.9%
20% -28.2% 12% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$67 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$1,831
Realized−$595
Unrealized+$859
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses34 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage387d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 42¢ $413 $1,132 +$719 (+174%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 88¢ $385 $515 +$130 (+34%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $173 $182 +$9 (+5%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $176 −$3 -2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $32 +$23 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? Mar 19 $5 $0 -5%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026? Mar 19 $95 +$9 +9%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March? Mar 19 $5 $0 +4%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 19 $297 −$297 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Mar 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 19, 2026? Mar 19 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Mar 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? Mar 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Qatar again in March? Mar 19 $6 $0 +5%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $181 +$11 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 12 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 09 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $92 −$71 -77%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $75 +$6 +8%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Mar 08 $70 +$4 +5%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $11 −$3 -27%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Mar 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Mar 07 $25 +$31 +122%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $532 −$487 -92%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 06 $103 −$49 -48%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $162 −$59 -36%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 02 $356 −$4 -1%
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March? Mar 02 $179 +$1 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd? Mar 02 $257 +$5 +2%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 02 $274 −$1 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $257 +$18 +7%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 01 $258 +$40 +15%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $216 +$3 +1%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28? Mar 01 $270 +$1 +0%
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? Mar 01 $210 +$70 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $173 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $173 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $176 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $30 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 25h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $30 46h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 46h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $65 46h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $30 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $32 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 3d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 6d
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 18d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 49d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 49d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 49d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 49d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 55d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 55d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 55d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 60d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 60d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 60d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 60d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $5 60d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $27 60d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $178 60d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $36 60d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $12 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,830.94 · official $1,830.94 (match) · 169 history records