Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1852…ac7c world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
sports 23% −$1
politics 16% −$1
other 16% +$2
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 0% -9.2%
all 38 -0.4% -9.9% 26% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage267d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $47 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $86 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $46 $0 -0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 11 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 05 $1 $0 -21%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $4 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $49 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $47 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $18 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $18 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $51 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.25 · official $53.00 (match) · 137 history records