Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1852…cb4e
sports · 232 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$24,006 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23,060 · open −$947
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$6,026
Realized−$23,060
Unrealized−$947
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses83 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2,979
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,100
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,347
7 days−$38,899
14 days−$39,012
30 days−$39,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 27¢ 24¢ $6,973 $6,026 −$947 (-14%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Royal Challengers Bangalore 40¢ $612 $0 −$612 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Under 49¢ $7,797 $0 −$7,797 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Dino Prizmic 30¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Mert Alkaya Massimo Giunta 38¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 18¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry Diane Parry 30¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Warwickshire 32¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Spurs 42¢ $11,460 $0 −$11,460 (-100%)
T20 Blast: Essex vs Derbyshire Derbyshire 25¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders Kolkata Knight Riders 37¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife La Laguna Tenerife 19¢ $8,146 $0 −$8,146 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Under 18¢ $1,413 $0 −$1,413 (-100%)
Geneva Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Tyler Zink Tyler Zink 27¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Zhang Kovacevic 40¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India England 25¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Titouan Droguet Titouan Droguet 29¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 35¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Alexis Galarneau 39¢ $1,700 $0 −$1,700 (-100%)
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Monaco Monaco 21¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
Real Madrid vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv 12¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
La Bisbal: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Aliona Bolsova Aliona Bolsova 24¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) Jun 13 $1,077 −$279 -26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $2,335 +$5,384 +231%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,368 −$1,365 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $67 −$2 -2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $6,837 −$6,679 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 12 $7,890 −$7,797 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $5,118 +$1,391 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $11,541 −$11,460 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $6,005 −$5,883 -98%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $2,650 −$2,601 -98%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $8,324 −$8,146 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $1,731 −$1,700 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,344 +$1,682 +125%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Jun 09 $1,416 −$1,413 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $31 −$31 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $199 +$145 +73%
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 06 $66 +$134 +203%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $55 −$54 -98%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $322 −$311 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $133 +$172 +130%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 01 $78 −$76 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 01 $158 −$80 -51%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $52 +$106 +203%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $93 −$91 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $54 +$39 +72%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Derbyshire May 31 $99 −$97 -98%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $277 −$270 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $137 +$141 +103%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo May 30 $224 −$220 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $769 −$541 -70%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $414 +$355 +86%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $1,341 −$1,315 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 29 $1,454 +$2,622 +180%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $1,382 +$72 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $657 +$724 +110%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) May 28 $498 +$158 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $2,337 −$2,291 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $1,636 +$507 +31%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $2,045 −$2,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $1,996 +$1,881 +94%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry May 20 $125 −$122 -98%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin May 20 $59 +$66 +112%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen May 16 $20 $0 -0%
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Zhang May 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Tyler Zink May 16 $148 −$145 -98%
Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 16 $174 −$11 -6%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $121 −$119 -98%
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Titouan Droguet May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$23,575
other 0% −$431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) SELL Indiana Fever 42¢ $318 45m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 34¢ $439 50m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 32¢ $1,020 50m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 32¢ $918 50m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 33¢ $306 51m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 30¢ $715 51m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 28¢ $102 52m
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) SELL Indiana Fever 27¢ $480 53m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 25¢ $1,832 53m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 23¢ $10 53m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 25¢ $221 55m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 24¢ $121 55m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 23¢ $511 55m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 23¢ $102 56m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $102 56m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $5 57m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $1 57m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $1 57m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $0 57m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $3 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $0 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $1 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $1 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $2 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $1 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $3 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $3 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $1 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $1 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 22¢ $8 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -43.0% -48.5% 20% 20% -71.3%
≤30d 56 +19.5% +8.1% 36% 34% -57.4%
≤90d 203 -15.5% -23.5% 29% 26% -65.1%
all 231 +0.3% -9.2% 36% 34% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 34% -17.9%
10% -17.9% 33% -25.8%
15% -25.8% 30% -33.0%
20% -33.1% 29% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,026.09 · official $6,026.09 (match) · 1255 history records