Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1852…0d8d crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$55
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +6.0% -4.1% 57% 57% -13.6%
≤30d 45 +7.6% -2.7% 58% 58% -12.9%
≤90d 45 +7.6% -2.7% 58% 58% -12.9%
all 45 +7.6% -2.7% 58% 58% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 58% -12.9%
10% -12.0% 56% -21.3%
15% -20.5% 56% -28.9%
20% -28.3% 56% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$28 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$43 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $65 +$56 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $43 +$41 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$26 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$16 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$19 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$36 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$18 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$21 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$10 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$20 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$16 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$15 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$8 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $147 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $65 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $60 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records