Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1852…6721 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$592 (-24%) realized −$588 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$567
other 21% −$119
crypto 5% +$13
sports 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -64.0% -67.4% 30% 20% -31.1%
≤30d 11 -61.2% -64.9% 27% 18% -37.8%
≤90d 11 -61.2% -64.9% 27% 18% -37.8%
all 11 -61.2% -64.9% 27% 18% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.9% 18% -37.8%
10% -68.2% 9% -43.7%
15% -71.3% 9% -49.2%
20% -74.1% 0% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$95 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$588
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage15d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $165 $163 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$130 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$10 -48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $115 +$13 +11%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 $0 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $128 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $1,693 −$568 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $167 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $73 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $55 3d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 3d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $91 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $24 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.17 · official $257.17 (match) · 86 history records