Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1851…6d17 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+2%) realized +$95 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%74W / 34L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$386
7 days−$113
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$19
other 32% +$77
world 3% −$13
tech 2% +$4
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -1.0% -10.5% 65% 36% -13.3%
≤30d 108 +15.2% +4.3% 69% 38% -6.9%
≤90d 108 +15.2% +4.3% 69% 38% -6.9%
all 108 +15.2% +4.3% 69% 38% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 38% -6.9%
10% -5.7% 25% -15.8%
15% -14.8% 21% -23.9%
20% -23.2% 15% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses74 / 34
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)108 / 122
History coverage12d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 46¢ $87 $77 −$9 (-11%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 Jun 22 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 +$3 +13%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$7 +17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $80 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +31%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $40 +$7 +17%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Qatar (-3.5) AND Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 −$3 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $190 −$12 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $88 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Sen BUY 11¢ $10 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $20 20h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $4 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Iraq (-1.5) AND Spread: Jordan (-2. BUY 94¢ $30 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $10 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 24¢ $16 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 93¢ $20 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 98¢ $20 28h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1. BUY 32¢ $5 43h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 67¢ $5 43h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $5 43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $6 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $9 44h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 46h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $30 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 BUY 78¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 83¢ $40 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 78¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.80 · official $242.70 · 277 history records