Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1851…ae47
world · 510 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,340 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,851 · open +$339
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,719
Realized−$1,851
Unrealized+$339
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses111 / 525
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions32
Markets (closed)636 / 510
History coverage68d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 32 History 636 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,022
7 days−$3,332
14 days−$2,893
30 days−$3,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $132 $326 +$194 (+147%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $73 $272 +$199 (+274%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $148 $153 +$5 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 20¢ 36¢ $79 $144 +$65 (+82%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $83 $135 +$52 (+62%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $60 $106 +$46 (+77%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $76 $104 +$28 (+37%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $92 $60 −$31 (-34%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $74 $51 −$23 (-31%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 31¢ $15 $47 +$31 (+203%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $78 $42 −$36 (-46%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $70 $36 −$34 (-49%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $46 $34 −$12 (-26%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $3 $30 +$28 (+1093%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $79 $30 −$50 (-63%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-52%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-16%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 1¢ $29 $10 −$19 (-66%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $23 $8 −$15 (-64%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $22 $8 −$14 (-65%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$18 -91%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 5, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 202 Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 26, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 major space weather events this week? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Thank you" 5+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesd Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 8 or more major space weather events this week? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4? Jun 12 $34 −$47 -138%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% −$313
other 12% −$536
weather 8% −$711
politics 7% −$451
sports 6% +$2,351
culture 2% −$151
crypto 2% +$452
economics 1% +$44
finance 1% +$790
tech 1% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 77¢ $36 48m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 57m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $28 2h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -65.9% -69.2% 6% 5% -78.5%
≤30d 437 -33.4% -39.8% 13% 11% -39.7%
≤90d 636 -29.9% -36.6% 17% 14% -20.3%
all 636 -29.9% -36.6% 17% 14% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 14% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -42.7% 12% -27.9%
15% -48.2% 11% -34.9%
20% -53.3% 10% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,718.74 · official $1,732.06 (match) · 3500 history records