Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1850…2e45 crypto 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$170 (-3%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%247W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$292
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -16.8% -24.7% 75% 14% -38.6%
≤30d 136 -16.8% -24.7% 75% 14% -38.6%
≤90d 271 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 23% -14.6%
all 302 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 24% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 24% -12.9%
10% -21.6% 9% -21.2%
15% -29.2% 4% -28.8%
20% -36.1% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses247 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)302 / 303
History coverage91d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 90¢ 90¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.87 · official $11.07 (match) · 1019 history records