Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x184f…e0b2 other 95 markets active 2d ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,121 (-33%) realized −$3,763 · open −$358
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%15W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$510
14 days+$135
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2,183
other 24% −$1,515
crypto 13% −$808
sports 12% −$36
politics 8% +$890
tech 2% −$225
economics 1% −$165
culture 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -34.4% -40.6% 22% 22% +33.9%
≤30d 16 -63.1% -66.6% 12% 12% -13.1%
≤90d 21 -48.9% -53.8% 19% 14% -13.7%
all 83 -41.0% -46.6% 18% 17% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 17% -38.6%
10% -51.7% 17% -44.5%
15% -56.4% 17% -49.8%
20% -60.6% 16% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$118 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized−$3,763
Unrealized−$358
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses15 / 68
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions12
Markets (closed)83 / 95
History coverage357d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 54¢ 27¢ $400 $201 −$199 (-50%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $35 $48 +$13 (+36%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+61%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 2¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $51 −$23 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $459 +$426 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $224 +$352 +157%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -97%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 21 $206 −$200 -97%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 12 $148 +$405 +274%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 06 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $205 −$200 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $100 +$278 +278%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $250 +$416 +166%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 19 $50 +$122 +245%
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t Feb 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 08 $150 −$150 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jan 10 $100 −$5 -5%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jan 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Jan 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Jan 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jan 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $100 −$35 -35%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jan 03 $57 −$41 -73%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a- Jan 03 $100 +$45 +46%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $200 +$132 +66%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Dec 30 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 30 $1,400 −$638 -46%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Over 20M humans verified on World Network by December 31? Oct 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Oct 20 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds? Oct 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 3¢ $29 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 54¢ $204 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $84 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $13 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $255 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $191 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $204 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 20¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 42¢ $203 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 8d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $20 8d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $51 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $576.99 · official $576.99 (match) · 333 history records