Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x184e…d53d crypto 1653 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$349 (-3%) realized −$349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%793W / 903L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$49
14 days−$124
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$398
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -22.6% -30.0% 51% 48% -12.0%
≤30d 206 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 47% -17.0%
≤90d 257 -17.4% -25.3% 51% 48% -15.5%
all 1696 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 46% -13.2%
10% -21.8% 46% -21.5%
15% -29.4% 45% -29.1%
20% -36.3% 44% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses793 / 903
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1696 / 1653
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1696 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records