Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x184e…bd25
crypto · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$607 -50%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$673 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$673
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage122d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$19 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 13 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 13 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11AM ET Feb 13 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 13 $4 +$4 +91%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 13 $597 −$570 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3AM ET Feb 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 13 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$2 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$103
politics 49% −$570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -24.3% -31.5% 38% 29% -22.2%
≤30d 24 -24.3% -31.5% 38% 29% -22.2%
≤90d 24 -24.3% -31.5% 38% 29% -22.2%
all 33 -14.3% -22.4% 39% 33% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 33% -60.3%
10% -29.9% 30% -64.1%
15% -36.6% 30% -67.5%
20% -42.8% 30% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records