Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1844…7eb8 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,094 (-3%) realized −$1,559 · open +$465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%38W / 26L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$518per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$499
7 days−$489
14 days−$489
30 days−$1,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$573
crypto 31% +$40
other 1% −$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.1% -32.2% 50% 50% -31.8%
≤30d 13 +4.2% -5.7% 54% 54% -36.0%
≤90d 64 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 56% -13.7%
all 64 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 56% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 56% -13.7%
10% -23.7% 48% -21.9%
15% -31.0% 39% -29.5%
20% -37.8% 27% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$988) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$402 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1,453
Realized−$1,559
Unrealized+$465
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses38 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage73d
Avg bet$518
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 68¢ 100¢ $989 $1,453 +$465 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,001 +$499 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $999 −$988 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 24 $368 −$356 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $190 +$177 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $310 −$300 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $498 −$491 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 24 $135 +$134 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 24 $21 +$45 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 24 $281 +$168 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 24 $38 +$35 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $494 +$236 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $498 −$487 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $999 −$979 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $1,512 −$1,499 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 13 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 13 $733 +$700 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 13 $414 −$355 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 13 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 13 $311 +$303 +98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $997 −$983 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $998 +$520 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 12 $753 −$36 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A May 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 12 $86 +$92 +107%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $2,393 +$913 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 12 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 12 $103 +$85 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $998 −$988 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $998 +$520 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $999 +$305 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $316 +$54 +17%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $999 +$314 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $998 +$375 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 09 $103 +$83 +80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $1,000 +$620 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1,000 +$434 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 17 $151 +$55 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 16 $200 +$101 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $200 +$29 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 68¢ $998 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,499 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $1,001 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $999 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $102 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $266 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $190 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $310 26d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $498 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $124 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $281 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $38 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $136 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $327 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 21¢ $498 27d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY paiN 24¢ $4 37d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY paiN 31¢ $995 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 37d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $1,512 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1,433 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $110 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $623 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $59 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,453.45 · official $1,453.45 (match) · 139 history records