trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-13%) |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | Jun 10 | $2 | +$2 | +66% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $3 | +$1 | +21% |
| Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? | May 30 | $2 | +$1 | +34% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 19 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $4 | +$2 | +55% |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl | Apr 12 | $4 | +$1 | +31% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | Apr 07 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? | Apr 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Apr 05 | $1 | $0 | -11% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $1 | −$1 | -91% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Mar 30 | $1 | $0 | +26% |
| Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this el | Mar 30 | $2 | −$1 | -45% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Mar 30 | $1 | $0 | -47% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Mar 30 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +66.3% | +50.5% | 100% | 100% | +50.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 75% | 75% | -17.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -17.7% | -25.5% | 47% | 40% | -15.5% |
| all | 15 | -17.7% | -25.5% | 47% | 40% | -15.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.5% | 40% | -15.5% |
| 10% | -32.6% | 33% | -23.6% |
| 15% | -39.1% | 13% | -31.0% |
| 20% | -45.1% | 13% | -37.8% |