Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

18 0x1842…16ea other 22 markets active 3h ago coverage 174d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$25,599 (-40%) realized −$24,487 · open −$1,112

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip

Net edge-86%after slip

Net WR6%break-even

Win rate6%1W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2,887per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$23,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +6%

net ROI/market (all)-84.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	16	-83.1%	-84.7%	6%	6%	-67.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-84.7%	6%	-67.8%
10% ← realistic here	-86.2%	6%	-70.9%
15%	-87.5%	6%	-73.7%
20%	-88.7%	6%	-76.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -83% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -66% → late -100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8,530 vs −$2,200 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage

Net worth$23,698

Realized−$24,487

Unrealized−$1,112

Win rate (resolved)6%

Wins / losses1 / 15

Open positions6

Markets (closed)16 / 22

History coverage174d

Avg bet$2,887

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$7,500	$7,073	−$427 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$4,500	$4,359	−$141 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$4,000	$3,922	−$77 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$4,000	$3,920	−$80 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$3,999	$3,714	−$285 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$810	$709	−$101 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$500	−$500	-100%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$500	−$500	-100%
Will Cal Baptist win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Siena win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Hawaii win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$1,500	−$1,500	-100%
Will Troy win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Akron win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 19	$100	−$100	-100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Mar 14	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Mar 14	$4,000	−$4,000	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Mar 06	$5,000	−$5,000	-100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	Jan 18	$5,000	+$8,530	+171%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	Jan 09	$4,000	−$4,000	-100%
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?	Jan 09	$5,000	−$5,000	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Jan 09	$5,000	−$5,000	-100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	Dec 27	$6,000	−$6,000	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$834	3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4,105	3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3,973	3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$146	3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4,633	3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4,117	3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$7,717	3h
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	6¢	$500	92d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	4¢	$500	92d
Will Cal Baptist win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	0¢	$100	92d
Will Siena win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	0¢	$64	92d
Will Siena win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	0¢	$36	92d
Will Hawaii win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	0¢	$100	92d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1,500	92d
Will Troy win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	0¢	$37	92d
Will Troy win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	0¢	$63	92d
Will Akron win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	0¢	$100	92d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1,000	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4,000	96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5,000	105d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL Yes	38¢	$13,530	152d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$4,000	161d
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5,000	161d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5,000	161d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6,000	173d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5,000	173d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,697.65 · official $23,717.63 (match) · 26 history records