Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1841…78fa
weather · 110 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$48 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$22 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$78
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Open positions41
Markets (closed)69 / 110
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 41 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$32
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 100¢ $1 $30 +$29 (+2815%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 67¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 78¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 72¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 48¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? No 69¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 67¢ 71¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 53¢ 89¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 78¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? No 70¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 78¢ 75¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 76¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 80¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? No 69¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 75¢ 75¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? No 79¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? No 68¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? No 61¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? No 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? No 74¢ 64¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 75¢ 69¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? No 65¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 55¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$4 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$28 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$17 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$11 +918%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +28.3% +16.1% 65% 54% +1.3%
≤30d 69 +18.9% +7.6% 61% 51% -2.4%
≤90d 69 +18.9% +7.6% 61% 51% -2.4%
all 69 +18.9% +7.6% 61% 51% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 51% -2.4%
10% -2.7% 39% -11.8%
15% -12.1% 29% -20.3%
20% -20.7% 17% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.33 · official $78.33 (match) · 155 history records