Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1841…87ef crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,793 (-54%) realized −$2,562 · open −$231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$927
7 days−$927
14 days−$927
30 days−$927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2,552
sports 22% −$883
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -42.2% -47.7% 25% 25% -58.7%
≤30d 12 -42.2% -47.7% 25% 25% -58.7%
≤90d 19 -28.9% -35.7% 37% 37% -74.0%
all 19 -28.9% -35.7% 37% 37% -74.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 37% -74.0%
10% -41.8% 32% -76.5%
15% -47.4% 32% -78.8%
20% -52.6% 32% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$315 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$2,562
Unrealized−$231
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage85d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 45¢ 42¢ $400 $369 −$31 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$158 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$98 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $180 −$177 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$49 -96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $102 −$65 -64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$94 +93%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $99 −$98 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $497 −$489 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 03 $190 +$150 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 03 $54 −$51 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 03 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 03 $50 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 03 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 03 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 27 $2,441 −$2,403 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $415 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $180 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 16¢ $37 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $196 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $99 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $497 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $190 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $54 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $50 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $29 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,942 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $499 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.07 · official $407.32 · 31 history records