Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x1840…0baa crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$963 (-26%) realized −$963 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$357
14 days−$602
30 days−$602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$930
other 11% −$274
sports 8% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -24.8% -32.0% 35% 30% -25.7%
≤30d 22 -27.9% -34.8% 32% 27% -31.7%
≤90d 22 -27.9% -34.8% 32% 27% -31.7%
all 28 -29.3% -36.0% 32% 29% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 29% -40.2%
10% -42.2% 29% -45.9%
15% -47.7% 18% -51.1%
20% -52.9% 11% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$86 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$963
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage100d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $131 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$36 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $77 +$33 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$24 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$89 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $313 −$106 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $127 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $331 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $128 +$56 +44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $111 +$91 +82%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $66 −$13 -20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $92 −$27 -29%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $90 −$4 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$45 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 16 $383 −$383 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 16 $100 +$70 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 16 $196 +$54 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 16 $110 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $236 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $40 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $17 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $64 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $233 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $8 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records