Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

18 0x1840…6798 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$419 (-22%) realized −$468 · open +$49

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%5W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day7.9pace

Fees−$32est.

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-35.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-28.2%	-35.0%	22%	22%	-37.4%
≤30d	23	-28.2%	-35.0%	22%	22%	-37.4%
≤90d	23	-28.2%	-35.0%	22%	22%	-37.4%
all	23	-28.2%	-35.0%	22%	22%	-37.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.0%	22%	-37.4%
10%	-41.2%	22%	-43.4%
15%	-46.9%	22%	-48.8%
20%	-52.1%	22%	-53.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +28% → late -80% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$155 vs −$71 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$338

Realized−$468

Unrealized+$49

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses5 / 18

Est. fees paid−$32

Open positions4

Markets (closed)23 / 27

History coverage4d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day7.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5)	Ghana	38¢	76¢	$63	$124	+$62 (+99%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Under	19¢	18¢	$114	$105	−$9 (-8%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Under	40¢	40¢	$58	$57	−$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	No	31¢	30¢	$54	$51	−$3 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$62	−$62	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$63	−$63	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$67	−$67	-100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$67	−$67	-100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$67	−$67	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$67	−$67	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$68	−$68	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$67	+$94	+140%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$67	−$67	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$67	−$67	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$68	−$68	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$67	−$67	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$67	−$67	-100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$67	+$90	+134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$68	+$219	+325%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$67	−$67	-100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Jun 21	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	Jun 21	$102	−$102	-100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$67	+$94	+140%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$68	+$280	+414%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$67	−$67	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$68	−$68	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$67	−$67	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	31¢	$55	2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$58	2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$59	2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	40¢	$59	2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	75¢	$62	5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	55¢	$63	5h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	38¢	$64	7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	34¢	$67	12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	37¢	$67	17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	37¢	$67	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$67	24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$68	24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	19¢	$68	34h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	38¢	$67	36h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	34¢	$67	36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	33¢	$67	36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$67	41h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	28¢	$67	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	28¢	$67	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$67	2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	23¢	$68	2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$68	2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$67	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$68	3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	BUY Ecuador	44¢	$102	3d
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	BUY Ecuador	24¢	$102	3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	43¢	$67	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$67	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.54 · official $337.54 (match) · 51 history records