trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 2¢ | 2¢ | $6 | $5 | −$1 (-16%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 6¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-43%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 33¢ | 32¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | Yes | 21¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $1 | −$9 (-93%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-69%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | Jun 12 | $2 | +$18 | +862% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 15 | $10 | −$1 | -11% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 13? | Jan 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? | Jan 15 | $10 | +$4 | +43% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +20.2% | +8.7% | 12% | 12% | -63.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +20.2% | +8.7% | 12% | 12% | -63.2% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +20.2% | +8.7% | 12% | 12% | -63.2% |
| all | 11 | +8.5% | -1.9% | 18% | 18% | -44.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.9% | 18% | -44.3% |
| 10% | -11.2% | 18% | -49.7% |
| 15% | -19.8% | 18% | -54.5% |
| 20% | -27.7% | 9% | -59.0% |