Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x183a…97c4 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$71 (+4%) realized +$70 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%23W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 46% +$4
crypto 37% +$167
other 15% −$97
economics 2% $0
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 29 -5.4% -14.4% 79% 21% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 21% -5.8%
10% -22.6% 21% -14.9%
15% -30.1% 17% -23.1%
20% -36.9% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$26 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses23 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage223d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? Jun 23 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $247 +$1 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 Apr 17 $205 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? Mar 24 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 14 $154 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 14 $125 +$76 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 14 $53 +$63 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 4? Mar 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 26 $31 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $30 $0 +1%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jan 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 09 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 Dec 27 $58 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 3AM ET Dec 11 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 11 $8 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 11 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Dec 11 $11 +$5 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 13 $47 +$23 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 13 $63 −$52 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $82 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $71 42d
Will Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $14 42d
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store BUY No 100¢ $61 42d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $248 66d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $247 66d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 90d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 90d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 BUY No 100¢ $59 90d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 90d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 90d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 BUY No 100¢ $146 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $12 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $19 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.76 · official $249.76 (match) · 102 history records