Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x183a…2a12 crypto 906 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,140 (-17%) realized −$1,140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate32%408W / 882L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day295.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,805
7 days−$1,811
14 days−$2,012
30 days−$2,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$6
sports 0% −$8
weather 0% −$12
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 716 -56.3% -60.4% 26% 24% -42.8%
≤30d 1290 -33.8% -40.1% 32% 20% -31.2%
≤90d 1290 -33.8% -40.1% 32% 20% -31.2%
all 1290 -33.8% -40.1% 32% 20% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.1% 20% -31.2%
10% ← realistic here -45.8% 15% -37.8%
15% -51.0% 11% -43.8%
20% -55.8% 7% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses408 / 882
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1290 / 906
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day295.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1290 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$3 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records