Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x1839…3ad3 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$145 · open +$87
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$426
14 days+$426
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$4
other 23% +$156
tech 1% +$23
politics 1% −$42
world 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +17.4% +6.2% 62% 62% +14.8%
≤30d 21 +17.4% +6.2% 62% 62% +14.8%
≤90d 34 -3.2% -12.5% 53% 53% -8.2%
all 66 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 52% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 52% -8.9%
10% -23.0% 52% -17.6%
15% -30.5% 48% -25.6%
20% -37.3% 41% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$53 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 32
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 71
History coverage200d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ $0 $87 +$87 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$65 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $159 +$107 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $102 +$116 +114%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$32 +62%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$35 +68%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $185 +$130 +70%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $41 +$102 +248%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$22 +44%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $71 +$50 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $115 −$115 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5 Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Nets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5 Mar 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 126.5 Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Mar 26 $60 +$55 +92%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Alicante: Edas Butvilas vs Jesper de Jong Mar 25 $50 +$46 +92%
Etcheverry vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $100 +$35 +35%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $100 +$43 +43%
Etcheverry vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5 Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) Mar 24 $150 +$93 +62%
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 Mar 24 $50 +$44 +89%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Mar 24 $70 +$62 +89%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) Mar 24 $107 +$53 +50%
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5 Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Korda (+1.5) Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic: O/U 231.5 Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Getafe CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 15-21? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Mar 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Miami Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mali vs. Senegal end in a draw? Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Mar 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will BUY 26¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 16h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $159 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $102 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $71 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $82 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $85 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 27h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $185 39h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $51 43h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $101 43h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $51 46h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $51 46h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 31¢ $46 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $41 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on BUY 41¢ $41 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $71 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $51 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Colombi BUY 17¢ $36 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 77¢ $115 88d
Rockets vs. Timberwolves BUY Rockets 53¢ $54 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.23 · official $137.23 · 143 history records