Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1839…c1b5
politics · 85 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$41
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage352d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 2 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 −$4 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? May 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $59 $0 -1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $57 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $57 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 27 $1 $0 -13%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $183 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $1 $0 -33%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $59 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lot 7 Henri Matisse’s “Figure décorative” sell for 15m or more? Nov 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 17 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $1 $0 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% −$5
other 31% −$9
sports 11% −$2
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% −$2
culture 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 97d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 97d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $3 98d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 103d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 110d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 118d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $57 123d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $57 126d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 133d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 135d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 136d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 136d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL Yes $0 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 7 -16.2% -24.2% 29% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 7 -16.2% -24.2% 29% 0% -11.3%
all 83 -10.7% -19.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -26.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -34.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -40.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.79 · official $40.79 (match) · 347 history records