Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1839…4d0d sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,018 (+26%) realized +$1,019 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days−$157
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$811
crypto 12% +$31
other 10% +$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -36.6% -42.6% 25% 25% -21.4%
≤30d 12 -36.6% -42.6% 25% 25% -21.4%
≤90d 12 -36.6% -42.6% 25% 25% -21.4%
all 24 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 33% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 33% +14.3%
10% -21.1% 33% +3.3%
15% -28.7% 33% -6.6%
20% -35.7% 29% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$47 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1,019
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage139d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $346 +$197 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$11 -17%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$70 +113%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $98 +$204 +208%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $50 −$5 -10%
Pistons vs. Warriors Jan 30 $289 +$11 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 30 $4 −$3 -71%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Jan 30 $250 −$28 -11%
Raptors vs. Magic Jan 30 $434 −$16 -4%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Jan 30 $27 +$27 +100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Jan 30 $400 +$269 +67%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Jan 30 $200 −$27 -14%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 30 $138 −$4 -3%
Nets vs. Nuggets Jan 30 $375 +$161 +43%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jan 30 $375 +$728 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 29 $85 +$49 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $346 4h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $54 28h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 42¢ $101 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $51 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 21¢ $47 39h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde $1 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 19¢ $60 39h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $45 137d
Pistons vs. Warriors SELL Warriors 56¢ $300 137d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL Yes $1 137d
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies SELL Timberwolves 63¢ $222 137d
Raptors vs. Magic SELL Raptors 45¢ $418 137d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner SELL Fnatic 100¢ $53 137d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs SELL Fnatic 100¢ $669 137d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner BUY Fnatic 50¢ $27 137d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio SELL Yes 33¢ $140 137d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio SELL Yes 35¢ $12 137d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio SELL Yes 35¢ $21 137d
Pistons vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 55¢ $100 137d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs BUY Fnatic 61¢ $100 137d
Raptors vs. Magic BUY Raptors 46¢ $100 137d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs BUY Fnatic 59¢ $300 137d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio BUY Yes 39¢ $200 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $17 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $56 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 137d
Pistons vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 54¢ $189 137d
Raptors vs. Magic BUY Raptors 47¢ $334 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.27 · official $43.27 (match) · 68 history records