Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1839…9fcc other 233 markets active 4d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-3%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%77W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$81
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$24
sports 39% −$176
politics 4% +$12
weather 2% −$25
world 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -26.3% -33.3% 27% 19% -37.9%
≤30d 39 -22.8% -30.2% 26% 21% -20.7%
≤90d 232 -16.3% -24.3% 33% 28% -13.9%
all 232 -16.3% -24.3% 33% 28% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 28% -13.9%
10% -31.5% 24% -22.1%
15% -38.1% 19% -29.6%
20% -44.2% 14% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses77 / 155
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage68d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 10 $36 −$26 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $37 +$16 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $16 −$6 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5 +$13 +275%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $9 −$1 -12%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $8 −$6 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $11 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $4 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 29¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 35¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 66¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 45¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 55¢ $3 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 60¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 64¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? SELL No 58¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? SELL No 53¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 601 history records