Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1838…6ba8
weather · 886 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,627 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,616 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$301
Realized−$2,616
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses618 / 336
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions3
Markets (closed)954 / 886
History coverage183d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 3 History 954 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,280
7 days−$1,547
14 days−$1,397
30 days−$1,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December 8? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Kings Rockets 95¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on December 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Malta vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Spurs Spurs 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on December 23? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on December 11? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-12? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on December 12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Malta vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on December Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-09-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on De Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. PSV end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on December 10? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. NEC end in a draw? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Verona vs. Inter end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Luxembourg vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-23? Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-21? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2025-10-25? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on De Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Union Berlin end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Gibraltar end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on December 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-21? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-26? Jun 14 $85 −$83 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. FC København end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray win on 2025-09-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-10-23? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 63% −$1
sports 18% −$1,039
other 10% +$196
world 5% −$271
politics 4% −$119
culture 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 46¢ $93 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $200 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $606 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $101 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $152 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $154 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $201 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $354 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $101 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY Yes 32¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $510 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY Yes 27¢ $5 11h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 98¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $100 12h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $375 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $200 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $200 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $300 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $50 13h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 82¢ $20 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -43.4% -48.8% 54% 1% -15.8%
≤30d 295 -26.0% -33.0% 68% 4% -12.7%
≤90d 494 -17.8% -25.6% 66% 17% -13.6%
all 954 -11.0% -19.4% 65% 20% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 20% -11.6%
10% -27.2% 14% -20.1%
15% -34.2% 11% -27.8%
20% -40.6% 8% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.04 · official $301.04 (match) · 3500 history records