Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1838…68f0
other · 47 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$427 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$428 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$115
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage112d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 4 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No 40¢ 39¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 21¢ 26¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+26%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $290 $0 −$290 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $22 −$2 -11%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 24 $294 −$290 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $298 −$120 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $208 −$10 -5%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 23 $19 −$4 -22%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $21 +$39 +186%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 18 $176 −$43 -24%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $392 +$66 +17%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $156 −$149 -95%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $50 −$44 -88%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $727 +$11 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $141 +$16 +11%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $67 −$37 -55%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $112 −$44 -40%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $901 −$170 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $529 +$393 +74%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 08 $110 −$11 -10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 06 $150 −$15 -10%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 06 $50 +$8 +17%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 06 $250 −$14 -6%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $25 +$180 +719%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $183 +$108 +59%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $395 +$10 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $76 −$47 -62%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Mar 05 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $234 +$68 +29%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $20 −$7 -36%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $150 −$53 -35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 02 $151 −$33 -22%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $110 +$24 +22%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $70 +$23 +34%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $110 +$85 +77%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Feb 28 $30 −$26 -87%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 28 $221 −$193 -88%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Feb 28 $160 −$20 -13%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $28 +$132 +481%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$445
world 43% +$261
politics 11% −$219
tech 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 40¢ $41 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $18 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 16h
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? SELL No 54¢ $78 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? BUY No 69¢ $100 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? SELL Yes 35¢ $100 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? BUY Yes 69¢ $198 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $198 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 19d
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? BUY Yes 33¢ $78 19d
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 19d
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? BUY Yes 36¢ $126 19d
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 19d
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 20d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 22d
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24d
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 24d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) SELL Yes 35¢ $20 25d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) BUY Yes 26¢ $15 25d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) SELL Yes 45¢ $0 25d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) SELL Yes 45¢ $48 25d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) SELL Yes 45¢ $45 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -19.1%
≤30d 20 -43.7% -49.0% 20% 15% -35.7%
≤90d 31 -6.7% -15.6% 29% 23% -16.3%
all 43 +4.7% -5.3% 35% 30% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 30% -14.9%
10% -14.4% 21% -23.0%
15% -22.6% 16% -30.5%
20% -30.2% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.93 · official $114.93 (match) · 181 history records