Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

18 0x1837…9bec other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$48 (+5%) realized +$49 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$188

7 days+$117

14 days+$28

30 days+$28

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-7.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+4.3%	-5.6%	44%	44%	+7.2%
≤30d	20	+2.3%	-7.4%	45%	45%	-6.9%
≤90d	20	+2.3%	-7.4%	45%	45%	-6.9%
all	20	+2.3%	-7.4%	45%	45%	-6.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.4%	45%	-6.9%
10%	-16.3%	40%	-15.8%
15%	-24.4%	40%	-24.0%
20%	-31.8%	35%	-31.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -28% → late +32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$33 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.08 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized+$49

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage14d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$96	$95	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$77	−$77	-100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$92	+$166	+180%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	+$21	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$45	+$32	+71%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$42	+$32	+75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$54	$0	-0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$48	+$6	+12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$53	−$11	-21%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$23	−$4	-18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$23	+$25	+105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$29	−$14	-49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$15	−$1	-9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$44	−$44	-100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$132	−$91	-69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$98	−$98	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$93	+$96	+103%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$4	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$98	1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	55¢	$77	2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$41	6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	37¢	$20	6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$19	14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$26	16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$41	21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	65¢	$15	26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	52¢	$27	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	100¢	$54	30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	82¢	$32	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	46¢	$11	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	88¢	$14	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$14	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	87¢	$5	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$5	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	46¢	$4	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$20	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	39¢	$20	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$33	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$15	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$20	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$48	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	47¢	$23	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	47¢	$14	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$29	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	23¢	$14	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.25 · official $95.25 (match) · 56 history records